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Job Vacancy Survey Future Hiring

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Minnesota's Job Vacancy Survey asks employers to report their plans to maintain or change current employment levels over the six months following the second through the fourth quarter of 2022. Of employers surveyed that responded:

  • 30.6% expect to increase employment levels, down about 10% from the fourth quarter of 2021.
  • Nearly two-thirds, 64.9%, expect their employment levels to remain the same, up just over 10% from last year.
  • The remaining 4.5% plan to decrease from their current employment levels, down slightly from last year.

A diffusion index over 50 percent indicates that employers plan to add employment overall, while a diffusion index under 50 percent indicates employers plan to decrease employment. At 63.0%, the diffusion index indicates that overall employers plan to add jobs over the next 6 months, down slightly (-3.5%) from fourth quarter 2021.

The Twin Cities index was 63.9% and the Greater Minnesota index is 62.2%, meaning that employers anticipate employment increases across the state. However, the diffusion index dropped nearly 7.0% in the Twin Cities but went up about 0.5% in Greater Minnesota from the fourth quarter of 2021. Moreover, all regions have an index score well above 50 percent, with the most optimism shown in Southeast and Northeast Minnesota. While the percent of employers that are expecting to increase employment is dropping, every region also saw a decrease in the percent of employers who were expecting to decrease employment.

Table 1: Future Hiring by Region, Second Quarter 2022

Area Increase Employment Employment Constant Decrease Employment Diffusion Index
Minnesota 30.6% 64.9% 4.5% 63.0%
Greater Minnesota 29.3% 65.8% 5.0% 62.2%
Twin Cities 31.9% 64.1% 4.1% 63.9%
Region 1 - Central 30.7% 64.1% 5.2% 62.7%
Region 2 - Northeast 36.2% 60.4% 3.5% 66.4%
Region 3 - Northwest 22.4% 72.2% 5.3% 58.6%
Region 4 - Southeast 39.4% 55.8% 4.8% 67.3%
Region 5 - Southwest 23.3% 71.4% 5.3% 59.0%
Region 6 - Twin Cities 31.9% 64.1% 4.1% 63.9%

Table 1 shows employer hiring plans by region.1 These can be translated into a diffusion index as in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Region

Future Hiring by Industry and Region

Table 2 below provides a breakdown of employer hiring expectations by industry while Figure 2 is a graph of the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry. As employment bounces back, employers in the following industries are the most optimistic about adding jobs during the next six months: Manufacturing, Accommodation & Food Services, Transportation & Warehousing, Administrative Support & Waste Management Services, Health Care & Social Assistance, and Retail Trade.

Every industry in the state has a diffusion index above 50 percent, meaning they all anticipate an increase in their employment levels in the next six months. Most industries saw a marked decrease in employers expecting to decrease employment, and an increase in the percent of employers expecting to hold employment constant. The two industries with the lowest positive diffusion index are Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting and Public Administration, which have the highest percentage of employers expecting to decrease employment.

Table 2. Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota, Second Quarter 2022

Industry Increase Employment Employment Constant Decrease Employment Diffusion Index
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 15.1% 74.7% 10.2% 52.5%
Mining 23.0% 73.7% 3.3% 59.8%
Utilities 12.4% 86.6% 1.1% 55.6%
Construction 19.0% 79.7% 1.3% 58.9%
Manufacturing 47.1% 49.3% 3.5% 71.8%
Wholesale Trade 16.0% 78.1% 5.9% 55.1%
Retail Trade 38.5% 56.4% 5.2% 66.6%
Transportation & Warehousing 38.6% 56.9% 4.5% 67.1%
Information 30.9% 66.2% 2.9% 64.0%
Finance & Insurance 14.4% 83.5% 2.2% 56.1%
Real Estate 10.4% 89.3% 0.4% 55.0%
Professional, Scientific & Technical Svcs. 29.9% 67.5% 2.6% 63.6%
Management of Companies 24.5% 72.3% 3.2% 60.6%
Administrative Support & Waste Management 35.7% 62.1% 2.2% 66.8%
Educational Services 25.8% 72.2% 2.0% 61.9%
Health Care & Social Assistance 39.7% 53.8% 6.5% 66.6%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 25.0% 65.6% 9.4% 57.8%
Accommodation & Food Services 47.7% 48.2% 4.1% 71.8%
Other Services 20.0% 77.9% 2.0% 59.0%
Public Administration 31.8% 43.1% 25.1% 53.4%

Figure 2. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota

Figure 3 graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities Metro Area.

Figure 3. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities

Future Hiring by Firm Size and Region

The following table presents hiring expectations by firm size for Minnesota, Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities. During the six month period following fourth quarter 2021, large and medium size employers are most likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce while very small employers are least likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce.

Table 3. Future Hiring by Firm Size, Second Quarter 2022

Area Increase Employment Employment Constant Decrease Employment Diffusion Index
Minnesota
Very Small 21.3% 75.1% 3.6% 58.9%
Small 47.0% 46.1% 7.0% 70.0%
Medium 52.2% 44.3% 3.5% 74.3%
Large 55.6% 41.1% 3.3% 76.2%
Greater Minnesota
Very Small 22.8% 73.3% 4.0% 59.4%
Small 41.3% 51.3% 7.4% 67.0%
Medium 55.5% 37.8% 6.7% 74.4%
Large 59.8% 36.9% 3.3% 78.3%
Twin Cities Metro
Very Small 19.9% 76.9% 3.2% 58.3%
Small 51.7% 41.8% 6.6% 72.5%
Medium 50.2% 48.2% 1.6% 74.3%
Large 53.6% 43.1% 3.3% 75.2%

Figure 4. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Firm Size

1The diffusion index is constructed so that if all firms report that they expected to expand, the index would equal 100. If all report that they expect to contract, the index would be zero. If the percentage of firms that expect to expand just equaled the percentage of firms that expect to contract (regardless of the percentage expecting to remain constant), the index would equal 50. Thus, a value of 50 represents the threshold between expectations of contraction and expansion.

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