The presence of such industry powerhouses as Polaris, Arctic Cat and New Flyer make Northwest Minnesota a hub of transportation equipment manufacturing.
From wheat and potatoes to soybeans and sugar beets, the region is a major producer and processor of food staples and specialty agricultural products.
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4/24/2023 9:00:00 AM
Anthony Schaffhauser
The recently released Job Vacancy Survey shows that Northwest Minnesota's labor market remains extremely tight. The estimated 20,409 job vacancies reported by employers is a new all-time record for the region, going back to 2001 when Minnesota completed the first Job Vacancy Survey. This unprecedented hiring demand, combined with record low unemployment, reveals a labor market that is tighter than at any time since these statistics have been produced
Figure 1 combines worker supply and demand statistics to show an estimated 2.5 vacancies per jobseeker. That means that even if every unemployed worker were an immediate fit for an available job, 60% of open positions would still be unfilled. Typically, Figure 1 has displayed jobseekers per vacancy, but the inverse ratio of job vacancies per jobseeker makes more sense since 2018. For example, it is more informative to say, "in 2022 there were 2.5 job vacancies per job seeker" rather than "there were 0.4 jobseekers per job vacancy." Conversely, in 2013 it was more descriptive to say, "there were 2 job seekers per job vacancy." This illustrates how much labor market conditions have tightened over the intervening years, particularly the past five years.
This latest Job Vacancy Survey captures labor demand two years past the trough of the pandemic recession in second quarter 2020. It is notable that Northwest Minnesota was the only region to hit a new high in job vacancies. Statewide and every other planning region was down from the records set in 2021. However, job vacancies remain well above pre-pandemic levels statewide and in every region.
Table 1 presents job vacancies by industry in Northwest Minnesota with some characteristics of these vacancies and a comparison to 2021 results. The largest number of vacancies are in Retail Trade, growing from an already large number a year ago as the pandemic recovery continues to surge in the Northwest. In contrast, Retail job vacancies were down nearly 25% from a year ago statewide.
| Table 1: 2022 Job Vacancy Results with Comparison to 2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAICS Code | NAICS Title | Job Vacancies | Job Vacancy Rate | Part Time | Require Work Experience | |||
| 2022 | % Change from 2021 | % | Change from 2021 | % | Change from 2021 | |||
| 0 | Total, All Industries | 20,409 | 14.9% | 9.3 | 34 | -2 | 39 | 7 |
| 11 | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting | 148 | 46.5% | 2.9 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -70 |
| 21 | Mining | 64 | 1.6% | 26.1 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 21 |
| 22 | Utilities | 9 | 12.5% | 0.7 | 0 | -13 | 83 | 7 |
| 23 | Construction | 349 | -59.4% | 2.6 | 8 | 5 | 79 | 16 |
| 31 | Manufacturing | 1,851 | -6.9% | 6.5 | 17 | 10 | 29 | 10 |
| 42 | Wholesale Trade | 480 | 55.8% | 4.1 | 3 | 2 | 43 | -10 |
| 44 | Retail Trade | 5,269 | 32.0% | 19.2 | 41 | 7 | 16 | -11 |
| 48 | Transportation & Warehousing | 713 | 144.2% | 11.7 | 25 | 6 | 44 | -29 |
| 51 | Information | 250 | 194.1% | 9.8 | 19 | 4 | 25 | -35 |
| 52 | Finance & Insurance | 84 | -67.6% | 1.4 | 0 | -1 | 94 | 4 |
| 53 | Real Estate & Rental & Leasing | 52 | NA | 3.4 | 19 | NA | 65 | NA |
| 54 | Professional & Technical Services | 148 | -16.9% | 3.1 | 21 | -34 | 73 | 40 |
| 55 | Management of Companies & Enterprises | 131 | 87.1% | 22.2 | 20 | -16 | 48 | -3 |
| 56 | Administrative & Waste Services | 399 | 146.3% | 12.2 | 17 | 9 | 63 | 58 |
| 61 | Educational Services | 3,044 | 431.2% | 13.7 | 44 | 11 | 75 | -2 |
| 62 | Health Care & Social Assistance | 3,646 | 18.9% | 9.4 | 35 | -15 | 43 | 20 |
| 71 | Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation | 310 | -67.5% | 9.4 | 64 | -3 | 20 | -7 |
| 72 | Accommodation & Food Services | 2,641 | -32.0% | 12.6 | 44 | -12 | 22 | 3 |
| 81 | Other Services, Ex. Public Admin | 331 | -11.0% | 5.3 | 6 | -14 | 89 | 17 |
| 92 | Public Administration | 493 | -8.5% | 3.3 | 22 | -2 | 54 | 10 |
However, with the large number and percentage of the region's jobs in Retail, the vacancy rate is not as high as Mining and Management of Companies. Job vacancy rates are a comparison of the number of vacancies relative to the number of filled positions, and very high rates can signify an exceptional need for workers. Part-time Retail vacancies rose to above average, and work experience is required for a very small and shrinking percentage of these positions.
Also continuing a growth trend, Health Care & Social Assistance has the second highest number of job vacancies. Statewide, this industry has the highest number of vacancies, but declined slightly from 2021. Compared to 2021, the industry had fewer part-time vacancies in the Northwest, and more frequently require work experience and postsecondary education.
Educational Services had the fastest growth in vacancies from 2021 as restaffing at schools from pandemic disruptions got into full swing, consistent with a surge statewide. Vacancy rates increased to above average, part-time lessened to about average, and work experience was more often required.
Accommodation & Food Services still had the fourth largest number of vacancies, despite hiring cooling down from the reopening demand a year ago. There was a very similar slide statewide. The related Arts, Entertainment & Recreation industry had the largest slowdown from a year ago, and the vacancy rate dropped to near average. Both industries had similar changes statewide. Construction is the other industry where hiring slowed significantly both in the Northwest and statewide. Also, work experience requirements became more frequent.
The Northwest industries that increased vacancies while statewide hiring demand slowed include: Information, Administrative & Waste Services, Transportation & Warehousing, and Management of Companies. These industries made the difference in pushing job vacancies to a new record in the Northwest.
In contrast, Manufacturing vacancies declined in the Northwest while increasing statewide. Like Construction, Northwest Manufacturing had a pandemic-related boom that was destined to cool as spending on services resumed. Note that Northwest Manufacturing includes a concentration in Building Materials and also outdoor recreational products. Both statewide and Northwest manufacturers significantly increased the frequency of part-time openings, which could make these jobs appealing to more workers.
Overall, the latest Job Vacancy Survey results reflect the region's tightening labor market in 2022, as well as the shift from spending on goods to spending on services. However, the most useful results of this research are the vacancies and their characteristics by occupation. That is what feeds the extremely useful Occupations in Demand Data Tool that informs educational and workforce development decisions of consumers, businesses, and education and workforce development services providers. Informed workforce decisions are critical to achieve greatest success for individuals and Minnesota as a whole.
Contact Anthony Schaffhauser at anthony.schaffhauser@state.mn.us.
