Last week, I had the honor to speak at a local business event in St. Cloud. The St. Cloud area, like many other parts of Minnesota, is experiencing demographic change. The dramatic demographic changes the city of St. Cloud and the surrounding area have experienced in the past few decades are requiring adjustments by all residents. And change can be hard.

Since 2000, Central Minnesota has been the fastest-growing region in the state. The region – from Cass County in the north to Wright County in the south and from Pine County in the east to Todd County in the west – is now home to 715,000 people. That's the second-largest area by population after the Twin Cities metro area. Major job growth industries are in health care; construction; professional, scientific and technology services; transportation and warehousing; and manufacturing.

St. Cloud is the state's 10th-largest city and one of its fastest growing ones: St. Cloud's population grew by 40 percent from 1990 to 2018, from just under 49,000 to nearly 70,000 people. During that same time frame, the share of nonwhite or ethnic minority residents grew from 3.5% to 21.3%. In fact, the number of people of races other than white in St. Cloud increased over 700% from 1990 to 2018. Somalis and other immigrants from East Africa make up the largest part of the nonwhite population growth. Meanwhile, the white population has grown older, on average, and the percentage of working-age residents is declining for the first time since we began tracking such information.

Unfortunately, employers are now finding workers in short supply. Economic growth will continue, but only if employers can fill open positions. During two DEED surveys in 2018, Central Minnesota had 15,000 unfilled job openings. The region has never had that many job openings before. And from 2017 to 2018, there was a net increase of just 539 workers, or 0.1% growth. Beginning next year, from 2020 to 2030, for the first time in modern history, Central Minnesota's labor force is expected to decrease significantly. In fact, the percentage of Minnesota's population that is working age is declining: from 62% in 2015 to 57% in 2035. This is due in large part to the huge number of baby boomers retiring from now through 2035.

If it were not for New Americans coming to Minnesota to work, Central Minnesota – and the rest of the state – would be facing an even more dire workforce shortage. That's because at a time when St. Cloud employers, and businesses throughout Minnesota, are struggling to find workers, immigrants are helping to fill the workforce gap. From April 2010 to July 2018, 107,830 more foreign-born residents moved into Minnesota than Minnesotans moved to foreign countries, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was an increase of 28% in foreign-born residents during that time period – more than twice the national rate of increase of foreign-born residents during that same time frame. This increase is good news for Minnesota. Without it, Minnesota's historically tight labor market (Minnesota's unemployment rate was 3.2% in October 2019) would be even tighter.

New Americans are far more likely to be of working age. In fact, more than 61% of Minnesota's foreign-born population are ages 25 to 54, compared to just 36% of the general population; 72% of the foreign-born population aged 16 and over is actively working compared to 70% of the native-born population. Between 2010 and 2018, 80,000 foreign-born people joined the workforce in Minnesota. That's almost 60% of the state's labor force growth during that time period. Without immigrants taking on the work they have, some industries (meat packing, computer application and system engineering, home health care and other personal care assistance) would struggle to continue in Minnesota.

While the St. Cloud area metro area is growing fast, many rural communities in Central Minnesota are seeing their population continue to decline. This has been a trend in the most rural parts of Minnesota since the 1940s, mirroring a decline in the percentage of the Minnesota population working on farms. The percentage of population fell from 16% in 1960 to less than 2% now working in that sector, which includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting and mining. Because of the shift in which sectors employ the most Minnesotans, many young people are leaving rural communities after high school to pursue work or further education in larger communities.

St. Cloud employers and community leaders and I also discussed who would lead St. Cloud and Central Minnesota businesses into the future. As noted earlier, many baby boomers are reaching retirement age. Among those retiring are many business owners, who may not have children who want to take on the family business. By tapping into the entrepreneurial spirit of recent immigrants, business owners without succession plans can find motivated leaders who may want to buy businesses and grow them.

Nearly everyone worries about the future in one way or the other. And many people are apprehensive about change. What kind of world will children and grandchildren grow up in? Will values important to you and your family continue to be honored? What will your community and its business environment be like in 10, 20 or 30 years? These concerns are common to all people. Together, we can work through them, whether that's planning for the succession of leadership in a company, developing the next generation of businesses and workers – or intentionally fostering communities that welcome all members as playing an important role.

We had a good discussion last Thursday, with St. Cloud area leaders sharing their perspectives on the transformative demographic and economic changes they are experiencing in their community. We talked candidly about fostering welcoming communities – where all people can contribute without feeling set apart because of their skin color or religion. Where I think we landed: Creating a welcoming environment isn't just a moral imperative, but an economic one as well.

– Deputy Commissioner Hamse Warfa