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7/16/2024 12:48:28 PM
Tim O'Neill
Each month, the Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) releases labor force statistics that detail movement in the labor force. Available through DEED's Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) tool, this data is available for Minnesota, its regions, its counties, and its larger cities. This data allows users to analyze current conditions, as well as how unemployment, employment and labor force numbers have fared over time. Let's look at how the Metro Area's labor force is doing.
As of May 2024, the Twin Cities Metro Area's labor force hit 1,720,261 people. The labor force is comprised of both employed and unemployed persons, specifically those actively searching for work. Being a separate survey, this estimate differs from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) estimates, which showed the Metro Area's labor force at 1,778,728 people in 2022. While the ACS 5-year estimates cannot be directly compared with DEED's LAUS estimates, the larger labor force size reported by the ACS in 2022 does reveal a major trend: the Metro Area's labor force size is down from previous years.
Between February 2020 and May 2024, the region's labor force is down by nearly 35,000 people (-2.0%). Much of this is due to an aging labor force and changing labor force participation rates. Over-the-year, between May 2023 and May 2024, the Metro Area's labor force was down by nearly 17,700 people (-1.0%). More encouragingly, the region's labor force has recovered some from lows witnessed in 2021. More specifically, between January 2021 and May 2024, the region's labor force expanded by over 39,100 people (+2.3%) (Figure 1).
Zooming in upon the labor force data reveals very low unemployment across the Metro Area. As of May 2024, the unemployment rate in the region was 2.5%. This was slightly below Minnesota's 2.7% and more than a full percentage point below the national rate of 3.7%. The Metro Area's rate of 2.5% represents approximately 42,400 unemployed persons (Table 1).
| Table 1. Labor Force Conditions in the Twin Cities Metro Area, May 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area | Labor Force | Employment | Unemployment | Unemployment Rate |
| Metro Area | 1,720,361 | 1,677,970 | 42,391 | 2.5% |
| Hennepin County | 704,740 | 687,779 | 16,961 | 2.4% |
| Ramsey County | 285,316 | 278,000 | 7,316 | 2.6% |
| Dakota County | 242,417 | 236,554 | 5,863 | 2.4% |
| Anoka County | 198,786 | 193,541 | 5,245 | 2.6% |
| Washington County | 145,048 | 141,569 | 3,479 | 2.4% |
| Scott County | 84,562 | 82,480 | 2,082 | 2.5% |
| Carver County | 59,492 | 58,047 | 1,445 | 2.4% |
| Minnesota | 3,085,864 | 3,002,684 | 83,180 | 2.7% |
| Source: DEED Local Area Unemployment Statistics | ||||
This low rate of unemployment in the Metro Area has been persistent. After spiking to 12.1% during the COVID-19 recession in May 2020, the unemployment rate in the region steadily declined to 2.3% over the next 18 months. Over the past two and a half years, the unemployment rate has averaged 2.5% each month, varying from as low as 1.8% to a high of 3.2%.
Like the labor force size, the number of unemployed persons in the Metro Area is down from pre-COVID levels. Between February 2020 and May 2024, the number of unemployed persons in the Metro Area is down by nearly 9,400. So, what does this all mean? Essentially, the labor market continues to remain very tight in the region. While job postings have cooled off somewhat over the past two years, the Metro Area still has 0.6 unemployed persons per job vacancy. With the pool of unemployed persons lower, along with a recovering labor force size, there will need to be increased emphasis on workforce connections to assist employers and career seekers alike. CareerForce offers no fee assistance to job seekers and employers in locations across the metro area and throughout Minnesota. Find contact info for a CareerForce location near you.
Contact Tim O'Neill, Labor Market Analyst, at timothy.oneill@state.mn.us.
