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Spotlight: Southwest Minnesota

Spotlight: Current Vacancies and Future Demand in Southwest Minnesota

By Amanda O'Connell
February 2023

In Southwest Minnesota, the current labor market presents a unique landscape characterized by many job vacancies now and an outlook for expected growth in the coming decade. The region is currently experiencing a notable demand for workers across various industries, with job vacancies spanning different occupational groups. Looking ahead, the projections from 2020 to 2030 indicate a promising growth trajectory in numerous sectors, indicating potential opportunities for job seekers and economic expansion in the region.

Southwest Minnesota Job VacanciesThe data provided from DEED's Job Vacancy Survey, Q2 2022, offers valuable insights into the job market in Southwest Minnesota. The total number of job vacancies across all industries in the region amounts to 14,128, with a job vacancy rate of 8.4%. This is a 2,185 decrease in job vacancies from the previous quarter, but still the second highest number on record (Figure 1). The median wage offer across these industries was $16.55 per hour. Notably, part-time employment comprises 42% of the job vacancies, indicating flexibility in working arrangements. Temporary or seasonal positions make up 16% of the vacancies.

Among the industries, Health Care & Social Assistance stands out with 3,582 job vacancies and a vacancy rate of 12.2%. This sector offers median wages of $17.80 per hour. Furthermore, a significant portion of the vacancies (64%) in this industry require post-secondary education, highlighting the demand for skilled professionals in healthcare-related roles.

Manufacturing also currently has a considerable number of job vacancies, totaling 3,063. The sector offers a median wage offer of $17.46 per hour. Retail Trade, with 1,851 vacancies, demonstrated a higher rate of part-time employment offers at 77%. The median wage in this industry is $13.51 per hour, which is among the lowest in the region. Accommodation & Food Services, another significant sector, features 1,358 vacancies with a high part-time employment rate of 68%, and a median wage offer of just $11.57 per hour.

Educational Services has 834 job vacancies, with most requiring post-secondary education. The Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting industry has 745 vacancies, showing significant demand for farm workers as the agriculture sector enjoys rising prices, while Wholesale Trade has 579 vacancies to help move goods to market.

Transportation & Warehousing has 463 vacancies, with a surprisingly high part-time employment rate as employers look for more flexibility from their workers. Public Administration has 325 job vacancies, while Other Services has 290 vacancies, offering higher median wages. Industries like Construction, Information, and Finance & Insurance display lower job vacancy numbers in the region, while the Management of Companies sector offers a higher median wage. Overall, these data highlight the diverse range of job vacancies and median wages across various industries in Southwest Minnesota (Table 1).

Table 1. Southwest Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey, Qtr. 2 202
Industry Number of Job Vacancies Job Vacancy Rate Median Wage Part-Time Temp. or Seasonal Requiring Post-Secondary Education Requiring 1 Year Experience Requiring Certificate or License
Total, All Industries 14,128 8.4 $16.55 42% 16% 31% 32% 37%
Health Care & Social Assistance 3,582 12.2 $17.80 42% 1% 64% 36% 71%
Manufacturing 3,063 10 $17.46 30% 38% 16% 30% 9%
Retail Trade 1,851 9.9 $13.51 77% 9% 0% 15% 22%
Accommodation & Food Services 1,358 12.1 $11.57 68% 0% 0% 6% 5%
Educational Services 834 5.2 $18.42 39% 34% 74% 84% 70%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting 745 14 $19.62 0% 10% 4% 33% 14%
Wholesale Trade 579 7.9 $17.83 31% 11% 20% 41% 54%
Transportation & Warehousing 463 6.6 $15.93 56% 28% 6% 8% 41%
Public Administration 325 3.3 $15.94 46% 55% 26% 50% 42%
Other Services 290 6.2 $23.43 4% 0% 50% 11% 50%
Professional & Technical Services 263 7.3 $25.47 1% 1% 97% 91% 84%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 242 12.3 $14.44 59% 66% 18% 39% 31%
Construction 240 2.9 $19.35 0% 0% 28% 46% 23%
Administrative Support & Waste Mgmt. Services 90 3.2 $19.40 16% 0% 35% 34% 5%
Information 75 3.5 $14.24 62% 2% 26% 33% 21%
Finance & Insurance 69 1.1 $23.25 21% 0% 58% 28% 39%
Management of Companies 36 2.4 $20.92 14% 0% 45% 65% 57%
Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey, Q2 2022

Despite the unprecedented levels of current demand and difficulty employers are having in filling them, it is projected that the Southwest region will experience a significant increase in employment over the next 10 years, with approximately 7,700 new jobs expected. DEED's Employment Projections through 2030 consider the initial job counts affected by the pandemic in 2020, indicating that a portion of the anticipated growth is attributed to the recovery of lost jobs. Nonetheless, even after the region reaches pre-pandemic employment levels, there is expected to be additional growth.

This includes faster gains in the industries hardest hit during the pandemic, including Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Accommodation & Food Services, and Other Services, which typically are not among the fastest-growing industries in the 10-year forecasts. To that end, Health Care & Social Assistance is again expected to be the largest growing and one of the fastest growing industries, potentially accounting for just over one-third of total projected job gains through 2030.

Other industries that are expected to see steady growth in the region include Educational Services, Manufacturing, Construction, Transportation & Warehousing, and Public Administration. In contrast, only four industries are projected to lose jobs over the decade, with the biggest decline predicted in Retail Trade as consumer behaviors continue to change, and ongoing declines for self-employed and agriculture workers. Although relatively small, Information is expected to see the fastest decline, cutting 7% of employment from 2020 to 2030 (Table 2).

Table 2. Southwest Minnesota Industry Employment Projections, 2020-2030
Industry Estimated Employment 2020 Projected Employment 2030 Percent Change 2020-2030 Numeric Change 2020-2030
Total, All Industries 195,812 203,504 3.9% 7,692
Health Care & Social Assistance 29,352 32,081 9.3% 2,729
Manufacturing 30,107 30,719 2.0% 612
Self-Employed & Unpaid Family Workers 21,926 21,257 -3.1% -669
Retail Trade 18,569 17,653 -4.9% -916
Educational Services 15,564 16,274 4.6% 710
Public Administration 13,193 13,517 2.5% 324
Accommodation & Food Services 10,089 12,268 21.6% 2,179
Wholesale Trade 8,045 8,118 0.9% 73
Construction 7,573 8,082 6.7% 509
Transportation & Warehousing 7,385 7,817 5.8% 432
Other Services 6,756 7,462 10.4% 706
Finance & Insurance 6,780 6,921 2.1% 141
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 5,674 5,753 1.4% 79
Professional & Technical Services 3,788 4,006 5.8% 218
Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt. Services 3,421 3,636 6.3% 215
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 1,655 2,114 27.7% 459
Information 2,152 2,001 -7.0% -151
Management of Companies 1,495 1,506 0.7% 11
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 1,318 1,311 -0.5% -7
Utilities 713 735 3.1% 22
Mining 257 273 6.2% 16
Source: DEED 2020-2030 Employment Outlook

Occupation Projections

Of the 22 occupational groups, 19 are projected to gain jobs in Southwest in the next decade. Of these gains, the occupational groups with the highest total job growth in the region include Food Preparation & Serving Related (2,026 jobs), Healthcare Support (1,322 jobs), and Transportation & Material Moving occupations (986 jobs).

When we examine the Food Preparation & Serving Related occupational group in more detail, it becomes apparent that certain occupations within this group are projected to experience substantial growth. Among these occupations, Fast Food & Counter Workers are expected to see the highest increase with a gain of 593 jobs. Cooks are also projected to experience significant growth, with an expected gain of 533 jobs, followed by Waiters & Waitresses with a gain of 315 jobs. Remarkably, these three occupations collectively account for 64% of the total job openings within the Food Preparation & Serving Related occupational group.

Of the Healthcare Support occupational group, Home Health & Personal Care Aides are expected to gain 1,147 jobs from 2020 to 2030. This could be caused by the aging population in Southwest Minnesota. In addition, Medical Assistants are expected to gain 68 jobs, and Massage Therapists are expected to gain 35 new jobs. Other occupations that are expected to grow include Physical Therapist Assistants (22 jobs or 25.6%) and Veterinary Assistants & Laboratory Animal Caretakers (10 jobs or 14.1%).

Transportation & Material Moving occupations represent the third major group expected to witness growth in the coming decade. Within this group, specific occupations stand out for projected job gains. Passenger Vehicle Drivers are anticipated to gain 418 jobs, while Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers are projected to increase by 211 jobs. Stockers & Order Fillers are also expected to experience growth, adding 87 jobs as demand for online shopping, delivery, and pickup rises.

Of particular interest, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers are forecasted to have a total of 5,101 job openings from 2020 to 2030. These openings encompass employment growth, labor market exits, and occupational transfers. This trend is not limited to Southwest Minnesota alone, but is observed throughout the state of Minnesota and the United States as a whole. For Minnesota, the total job openings from 2020 to 2030 are projected to be 43,441, while the United States is expected to have 2.3 million job openings during the same period. To address the growing need for workers in the transportation industry, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has introduced the Safe Driver Apprenticeship Pilot Program. This initiative allows individuals between the ages of 18 and 20 years to obtain a commercial driver's license and operate within their home state, providing a potential solution to combat the workforce shortage in this field1.

Among the occupational groups in Southwest Minnesota, three are projected to experience declines in employment. These include Office & Administrative Support occupations, expected to decrease by 999 jobs or 4.6%, Sales & Related occupations with a decline of 832 jobs or 4.7%, and Production occupations with a decrease of 49 jobs or 0.2%. It is noteworthy that these declining trends are not limited to Southwest alone. Every region in Minnesota is projected to witness a decline in Sales & Related and Office & Administrative Support occupations, suggesting a broader statewide pattern.

The decline in Office & Administrative Support occupations can be attributed to the automation of tasks through technological systems and applications. As businesses adopt more advanced technologies to streamline operations and improve efficiency, certain administrative tasks previously performed by human workers may now be automated. This shift leads to a reduced demand for workers in these occupations. Similarly, Sales & Related occupations are facing challenges from changing consumer behaviors and the rise of e-commerce.

Table 3. Regional Employment Projections, 2020-2030 - Southwest Minnesota

Occupational Group

2020 Estimate 2030 Projection 2020-2030 Percent Change Total Job Growth Change Labor Force Exit Openings Transfer Openings 2020-2030 Total Hires Median Hourly Wage (2022 Q1)
Total, All Occupations 195,812 203,504 3.9% 7,692 89,195 130,276 227,163 $20.15
Food Preparation & Serving Related 11,786 13,812 17.2% 2,026 9,744 12,962 24,732 $14.34
Healthcare Support 10,750 12,072 12.3% 1,322 7,049 6,686 15,057 $15.77
Transportation & Material Moving 15,678 16,664 6.3% 986 7,521 12,189 20,696 $19.58
Education, Training, & Library 11,135 11,990 7.7% 855 4,608 5,242 10,705 $24.76
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 10,405 11,134 7.0% 729 2,738 3,279 6,746 $36.73
Installation, Maintenance & Repair 8,376 8,891 6.1% 515 2,660 5,493 8,668 $24.41
Personal Care and Service 5,354 5,800 8.3% 446 3,452 4,359 8,257 $15.23
Community & Social Service 4,553 4,987 9.5% 434 1,676 3,061 5,171 $24.72
Construction & Extraction 8,525 8,958 5.1% 433 2,623 5,887 8,943 $24.58
Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maint. 6,298 6,712 6.6% 414 3,715 4,760 8,889 $16.22
Management 19,789 20,101 1.6% 312 8,590 8,844 17,746 $40.82
Business & Financial Operations 6,984 7,285 4.3% 301 1,897 4,129 6,327 $31.18
Arts, Design, Entertainment & Media 2,716 2,912 7.2% 196 1,129 1,756 3,081 $22.41
Architecture & Engineering 2,593 2,767 6.7% 174 682 1,397 2,253 $36.68
Protective Service 2,770 2,895 4.5% 125 1,134 1,680 2,939 $26.33
Life, Physical & Social Science 2,380 2,491 4.7% 111 533 1,891 2,535 $30.83
Computer & Mathematical 2,110 2,193 3.9% 83 432 1,071 1,586 $37.75
Farming, Fishing & Forestry 3,891 3,954 1.6% 63 1,651 4,455 6,169 $18.84
Legal 667 714 7.0% 47 194 278 519 $31.33
Production 19,608 19,559 -0.2% -49 7,349 14,152 21,452 $19.55
Sales & Related 17,624 16,792 -4.7% -832 9,573 13,865 22,606 $15.19
Office & Administrative Support 21,820 20,821 -4.6% -999 10,245 12,840 22,086 $19.65
Source: DEED Employment Outlook, Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics

Southwest Minnesota's labor market is currently experiencing significant worker demand, with numerous job vacancies available across various industries and occupational groups. This high worker demand is further amplified by the region's projected job growth from 2020 to 2030. These projections indicate that Southwest Minnesota will continue to offer many job opportunities in the coming years, highlighting the region's promising economic outlook and potential for sustained employment growth.

1Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

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