By Nick Dobbins
February 2021
Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.
The Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MSA lost 6,361 jobs (0.3 percent) over the month in January. This was much stronger than a usual January, as over-the-month job growth has never been higher than -1.4% in the MSA. Much of this can be attributed to Leisure and Hospitality, which was up by 21.6% (21,198 jobs) in January, when the month usually brings declines of greater than 1 percent. This break in traditional patterns is likely caused by the effect COVID-19 and the related response has had in disrupting the usual seasonal movement in the labor market. Other Services added 1,128 jobs (1.7%) on the month. The only other two supersectors to add jobs were Manufacturing and Information, each of which was up by less than 1%.
Over the year the metro area lost 177,999 jobs (8.8%). This was an improvement over December's 9.8% decline, reversing the two months of deterioration in over-the-year growth, but was also the worst over-the-year employment drop of any MSA in the state. Every supersector lost jobs, with the steepest declines in Leisure and Hospitality (down 35.2% or 64,992 jobs), followed by Other Services (down 11.8% or 9,277 jobs), and Information (down 11.6%, 4,052 jobs). The best over-the-year performance was in Financial Services, which lost 1,543 jobs or 1%. Mining, Logging, and Construction was down by 2.5% or 1,981 jobs.
The Duluth-Superior MSA lost 392 jobs (0.3%) in January on an unadjusted basis. Over-the-month declines are usually much larger in January, as this is the only one on record with a decline of less than 1.6%. Mining, Logging, and Construction lost 764 jobs (8.4%), and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities lost 303 (1.3%), but declines were mitigated by the addition of 731 jobs (7.9%) in Leisure and Hospitality, in a month which usually sees sharp employment drops for the supersector.
Over the year the Duluth area lost 9,645 jobs (7.2%), slightly better than the state's 7.8% decline. Leisure and Hospitality employment was down 26.9% (3,684 jobs), the largest real and proportional decline of any supersector. Other Services and Information were both down 15.2% (965 jobs and 194 jobs, respectively). The best over-the-year performance in the area came in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, down 1.4% (349 jobs),with Retail Trade adding 254 jobs (1.7%) on the year.
The Rochester MSA lost 756 jobs (0.6%) in January. This was the worst performance of any MSA primarily in Minnesota, although both MSAs shared with North Dakota fared worse. Leisure and Hospitality added 820 jobs or 12%, which was the largest real and proportional change of any supersector. Those gains were countered by losses of 619 (3.5%) in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities and 430 (9.2%) in Mining, Logging, and Construction, among others.
Over the year Rochester lost 7,439 jobs (6%). This was the best over-the-year performance of any MSA primarily in the state, although Fargo-Moorhead fared better, down 3.6%. Professional and Business Services was the only supersector to add jobs on the year, up by 181 or 3.3%.
The St. Cloud MSA lost 460 jobs (0.4%) in January. Mining, Logging, and Construction shed 415 jobs or 6.1%, the largest real and proportional decline of any supersector, distantly trailed by Leisure and Hospitality, down 165 or 3%. Government employers added 169 jobs or 1.1%, with most of that growth coming at the State Government level.
On an annual basis the St. Cloud area lost 7,097 jobs (6.5%). Mining, Logging, and Construction was the only supersector to add jobs on the year, up 252 or 4.1%. The steepest decline came in Leisure and Hospitality, down 2,671 or 33.3%.
The Mankato-North Mankato MSA added 343 jobs (0.6%) in January. It was the only MSA in the state to add jobs over the month. Service providers added 831 jobs (1.9%), more than making up for the loss of 488 jobs (5.1%) among goods producers.
Over the year the Mankato-North Mankato MSA lost 4,074 jobs (7%). Private sector employers lost 3,683 jobs (7.6%), and public sector employers lost 391 jobs (3.9%).
The Fargo-Moorhead MSA lost 2,444 jobs (1.7%) in January. Manufacturing was the only supersector to add jobs (up 247 or 2.5%). The largest proportional loss came in Mining, Logging, and Construction, down 5.2% (470 jobs).
Over the year the Fargo-Moorhead area lost 5,152 jobs (3.6%). Leisure and Hospitality was down 17.7% (2,472 jobs). Mining and Logging employment was up by 12.6% (963 jobs), but those gains were countered by losses in other places, most notably Leisure and Hospitality, where employment was down by 17.7% or 2,472 jobs. Government employment was down 6.3% or 1,222 jobs.
The Grand Forks-East Grand Forks MSA lost 974 jobs or 1.9%, in January. This was the largest proportional over-the-month job loss of any MSA in the state. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities drove the declines, off by 694 jobs or 6.6%, with losses in all three component sectors. Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities lost 359 jobs or 17.1%. Government employers added 135 jobs or 1.1%, the largest real and proportional growth in the area.
Over the year the Grand Forks-East Grand Forks area lost 3,682 jobs (6.9%). Every supersector lost jobs, with the biggest decline coming in Leisure and Hospitality (down 1,178 jobs or 19.9%). Trade, Transportation, and Utilities was off by 627 jobs (6%) with the biggest losses coming in Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (down 458 or 20.9%).
