By Brent Pearson
June 2013
The Mayo Clinic has a major effect on the economy of southeastern Minnesota, with a proposed $5 billion expansion of the world-renowned medical center likely to stimulate further growth.
Destination Medical Center (DMC) is a $5 billion plan to expand the Mayo Clinic's Rochester campus and further enhance the region's position as a global destination for health care services. Mayo officials estimate the expansion will create between 25,000 and 30,000 direct jobs, another 10,000 to 15,000 indirect jobs, and 1,800 to 2,200 construction jobs over the next 20 years. In all, Mayo officials estimate 35,000 to 45,000 jobs will be added in the region, plus significant new tax revenue.
How do these employment projections compare with DEED's earlier employment projections for the region?
DEED estimates, which did not factor in the Mayo proposal, also project steady job growth in the region, based partly on the expectation that the medical complex would continue growing. Beyond that, though, it's difficult to compare DEED and DMC projections because they measured different time periods and possibly different areas.
DEED's employment projections are for the 10-year period from 2010 to 2020 (see Table 1), while the DMC projections are for a 20-year period.1 DEED's projections are for 11 counties in southeastern Minnesota (Dodge, Fillmore, Freeborn, Goodhue, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Rice, Steele, Wabasha, and Winona counties), while the DMC projections are for the "Rochester area."
| Southeast Minnesota Employment Projections | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupation | Percent Change | Total Change 2010-2020 | Replacement Hires 2010-2020 | Total Hires 2010-2020 |
| Total, All Occupations | 14.3 | 36,384 | 59,620 | 97,350 |
| Health Care Practitioners and Technical Occupations | ||||
| Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners | 25.8 | 3,450 | 2,540 | 5,990 |
| Registered Nurses | 24.5 | 2,097 | 1,550 | 3,650 |
| Physicians and Surgeons, All Other | 28.8 | 299 | 200 | 500 |
| Pharmacists | 23.9 | 133 | 140 | 270 |
| Health Technologists and Technicians | 24.9 | 2,111 | 1,750 | 3,860 |
| Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses | 20.9 | 472 | 600 | 1,070 |
| Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists | 20.7 | 301 | 280 | 580 |
| Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics | 27.2 | 197 | 140 | 340 |
| Pharmacy Technicians | 27.5 | 189 | 120 | 310 |
| Radiologic Technologists and Technicians | 26.8 | 168 | 100 | 270 |
| Other Health Care Practitioners and Technical | 23.4 | 67 | 100 | 170 |
| Health Care Support Occupations | ||||
| Nursing, Psychiatric, and Home Health Aides | 37.8 | 3,099 | 1,060 | 4,140 |
| Home Health Aides | 61.8 | 2,454 | 510 | 2,960 |
| Nursing Aides, Orderlies and Attendants | 15.3 | 645 | 540 | 1,180 |
| Occupational Therapy and Physical Therapist Assist | 38.7 | 82 | 30 | 110 |
| Other Health Care Support Occupations | 25.1 | 1,075 | 690 | 1,770 |
| Commercial and Professional Occupations | ||||
| Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 12.4 | 251 | 540 | 790 |
| Information and Record Clerks | 13.3 | 966 | 2,170 | 3,150 |
| Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching and Delivery | 0.9 | 52 | 1,540 | 1,830 |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 19.0 | 1,063 | 750 | 1,820 |
| Other Office and Administrative Support Workers | 13.0 | 945 | 1,320 | 2,300 |
| Restaurant and Retail | ||||
| Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 4.7 | 70 | 310 | 380 |
| Cooks and Food Preparation Workers | 6.3 | 256 | 980 | 1,240 |
| Food and Beverage Serving Workers | 7.4 | 832 | 4,500 | 5,330 |
| Other Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers | 1.9 | 32 | 860 | 910 |
| Retail Sales Workers | 12.8 | 1,964 | 5,490 | 7,470 |
| Hotel and Hospitality | ||||
| Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks | 11.3 | 87 | 310 | 400 |
| Construction Related | ||||
| Supervisors of Construction and Extraction Workers | 25.0 | 153 | 140 | 290 |
| Construction Trades Workers | 28.0 | 1,955 | 1,520 | 3,480 |
| Helpers, Construction Trades | 48.0 | 73 | 40 | 110 |
| Other Construction and Related Workers | 6.6 | 50 | 200 | 250 |
| Source: DEED Employment Outlook Projections | ||||
The DMC projections (see Table 2) show significant growth in health care and commercial/professional occupations, along with lower growth in the service sector (restaurants, retail, hotels, hospitality). The wages for these jobs range from health care professionals, which DMC projected will earn $70,000 annually, to lower-wage service-sector employment, including hotel, hospitality, restaurant and retail jobs, projected to pay $21,500 annually. With construction, infrastructure and transportation, education, and office and business-support occupations added to the mix, DMC estimates the 26,800 to 32,200 permanent jobs created by the expansion of Mayo Clinic will pay $53,000 annually on average.
| Destination Medical Center Job Breakdown | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Mayo Clinic and DMC Related Jobs | Range of Job Growth | Salary Range | Estimated Average Mid-Point | ||
| Mayo Clinic Jobs | |||||
| Physicians and Scientists | 911 | 1,041 | - | - | - |
| Allied Health Professionals | 12,226 | 13,973 | - | - | - |
| Other | 863 | 986 | - | - | - |
| Subtotal - Mayo Clinic | 14,000 | 16,000 | - | - | $70,000 |
| Commercial/Professional | 5,000 | 5,500 | $35,000 | $116,000 | $45,000 |
| Restaurant/Retail | 1,500 | 2,500 | $18,000 | $25,000 | $21,500 |
| Hotel/Hospitality | 1,000 | 1,500 | $18,000 | $25,000 | $21,500 |
| Construction Related | 1,800 | 2,200 | $34,500 | $62,000 | $39,700 |
| Other | |||||
| Trade, Transportation, and Utilities | 1,063 | 1,367 | $20,000 | $46,500 | $33,200 |
| Education and Non-Mayo Health Services | 1,496 | 1,924 | $27,500 | $78,500 | $37,100 |
| Other Services | 941 | 1,210 | $19,000 | $38,000 | $28,500 |
| Subtotal - Other | 3,500 | 4,500 | - | - | $33,600 |
| Permanent Jobs and Salary Range | 26,800 | 32,200 | - | - | $53,000 |
| Source: Destination Medical Center "Job Growth Breakdown" | |||||
DEED projects similar overall growth over a shorter period but possibly for a larger area. Moreover, the pattern of occupational growth is also similar. Overall, DEED's projections show southeastern Minnesota adding 36,384 new jobs (14.3 percent growth) over the 10-year period. An additional 59,620 jobs are projected to open as a result of workers who leave the region or retire.
Similar to DMC projections, DEED projects health care practitioners and technical occupations, led by registered nurses, to have some of the highest growth rates. Health diagnosing and treating practitioners are expected to add 3,450 new jobs, while technologists and technicians are expected to add 2,111 jobs. Significant growth is also expected in health care support occupations, with more than 6,000 new jobs. Health care practitioners and technical occupations pay $83,637 on average annually, while health care support occupations pay $30,249.
DEED's projections also show growth in commercial and professional, restaurant and retail, hotel and hospitality, and construction-related occupations in southeastern Minnesota. Among these, medical secretaries are projected to add 710 new jobs, while retail sales worker jobs are expected to grow by about 1,960. Construction occupations are projected to add more than 2,200 jobs in the region.
Overall, DEED and DMC projections show similar growth patterns, even though DEED did not factor in growth resulting from the DMC proposal. Mayo plays a huge role in the economy of southeastern Minnesota, both through direct and indirect job creation. An expansion of Mayo Clinic in the region can only bolster this growth.
More details about the project are available at Destination Medical Center.
1DEED updates employment projections every two years using national models and local employment statistics in collaboration with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
